My questions about MH370: A visit to Occam's barbershop

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." - Hanlon's Razor
 
This is not my normal blog post. It may be moot at any time, but it is a relevant question anyway.

The disappearance of Flight MH370 has led to wild speculation by the media based on little or no evidence. I believe there are some basic questions that have not been answered:

• Why did the ELT fail to activate? Why were there no distress calls from the aircraft?
• What happened to the pings to Inmarsat between 1:07  and 08:11?
• Why is the arc for the location of MH370 truncated between Vietnam and Indonesia? What makes this area exceptional?
• What is the time it takes a 777 flying at normal cruising speed to turn 300°?
• Was the "unknown aircraft" that we assume to be MH370 really it? Were there any other "unknown aircraft" in the sky that night?
• What is the maximum limits of the radar observations of the "unknown aircraft?" Does it terminate in the Malacca straits? On the Andaman islands? Beyond?
• In the court of Occam's razor, do eyewitnesses count for anything?
• Do eyewitness accounts tie in with the known facts?
• What would cause radar echoes to be intermittent?

I ask these questions as a layman, I have no special knowledge or skills. In doing so I am going to apply Occam's razor (i.e. Make no more assumptions than is necessary).
I will use the word "allegedly" a few times in this post. This word means 'I have no corroboration' for the facts stated. It does not mean "I am suspicious."

Here are the sequence of known, relevant events:

• On 8 March at 00:30, MH370, a Boeing 777,  departed Kuala Lampur with 227 passengers and 12 staff on board. The weather was normal.
• Two of the passengers on board were travelling under false passports. They have allegedly since been cleared.
• At 1:07 the last ACARS transmission is made. The next transmission is expected in either 30 minutes or 1 hour. It is unclear from the reporting whether the satellite or plane initiates this request.
• At 01:19 MH370 sent it's last transmission to Malaysia Air traffic control saying "All right, good night." This is the last intelligible vocal communication.
• At 01:21 MH370 disappeared from radar. This is the last known radar contact with MH370.
• At 01:28 Thai radar picked up an unknown aircraft flying in the opposite direction to MH370 in the same vicinity as MH370. This aircraft's signal was intermittent.
• Malaysian radar also picked up an unidentified aircraft in the same vicinity, although times are not given.
• This aircraft is assumed to be MH370.
• At "just after 01:30" the pilot of another aircraft makes contact with MH370. He hears static and "mumbles". This is the last known verbal contact with MH370.
• While on this course, the unidentified aircraft allegedly makes a series of erratic altitude changes. It goes up to 45000ft (above the safe operating limit for MH370) down to 23000ft (below normal cruising altitude for MH370) and then down to 5000ft.
• This aircraft travels south west into the Malacca Strait. Based on some reporting the aircraft followed commercial airline waypoints.
• The narratives now diverge:
• According to Malaysian authorities the aircraft follows a complex set of navigation points to eventually take a route that would lead it to Europe, crossing the Andaman Islands.
• According to Thai reports the aircraft turns left into the Malacca strait and then makes a right turn towards Butterworth, Malaysia.
• At 08:11, Inmarsat reports a "ping" response from MH370, response times indicate a possible arc of the current location. No intervening pings are given. The centre of the arc defined by this ping is excluded as possible locations, even though it intersects the original flight path of MH370. Reports differ as to whether the plane needed to be in the air for this ping to occur.
• The Emergency Location Transmitter (ELT) did not activate. At 01:19, 08:11 or at any time in between. 
• No mayday signal was sent by the crew.

Corroborating eyewitness accounts:
The most convincing eyewitness account I have seen is from Mike McKay. His observations are detailed in every way except that he did not quote a time. Other than that, Mike would be my primary source. His account was early, precise and detailed. Tie that to an aircraft flying at 45000ft instead of 30000ft and the numbers start to add up.

Other eyewitness accounts:

• Fishermen in the Malacca straits find a life raft with the word "boarding" on it.
• Fishermen report seeing an aircraft fall in the Malacca straits. Wrong date, wrong time. However, the description is seems to mesh with a catastrophic failure.
• Fishermen off the coast of Andhra Pradesh report "bits of something." I admire the reserve.
• Reported sighting over the Maldives, flying North to South East at 06:15 local time. These guys were definitely hungover (or the US guys at Deigo Garcia were messing with them.) The numbers do not compute.

Occcam's barbershop:
Theory 1: MH370 suffered a catastrophic failure between 01:21 and 01:28. To purport that a commercial aircraft can lose all signal in 7 minutes due to human intervention is reaching.

Theory 2: MH370 crashed somewhere off the coast of Vietnam due to theory 1. If the Inmarsat beacon somehow stayed alive, it would explain the ongoing responses.

Theory 3: MH 370 crashed somewhere between the Andaman Straits and the Indian coast. This would assume that the Anmarsat responses were not absolute, but would explain three of the eyewitness accounts. I dedicate this theory to Courtney Love with no irony whatsoever.

Theory 4: The aircraft crashed somewhere between the Malacca straits and the Indian coast. This would explain two eyewitness accounts and match the last assumed direction of the unidentified aircraft. It would question the Inmarsat locations.

Theory 5: The aircraft continued flying and crashed or landed somewhere else on the Inmarsat arc or 30 minutes beyond. This calls into question all of the known facts except the Inmarsat pings.

Theory 6: Whatever the truth is discovered to be.

As much as this is a curious mental exercise, I do acknowledge that real people are involved. The missing, their families, the bleeding hearts and artists. Ordinary people. I do care, in my way.

Lastly I want to say to all the media: Your ugliness has been noted.

Show me the place: A random diatribe

[An attempt at surrealism. Some very obscure references which are often incredibly dirty, you may want to google them :) Beer with me or wine away (sic).]


Her lipstick is red, cloven on the upper lip; an indication of possible assignations consummated. Dark red, indicating satiation. Throbbing red, satisfied red.

I would have preferred pink or possibly puce. Potential. Possibility. Not fait accompli.

She moves awkwardly, a young starling; a freshly birthed buck. A hex torn from the storm too early.
A grief imposed.
A gnarly nose.
A shadow without shape.
A season unseasoned.
Somewhere or something else.

And if she is not present, how shall I consume her? How? Shall I suck the essence of lemon from my keyboard. Shall I cast my burger patty from a wraith's womb?
Shall I....?
Shall.. ow.
Sallow.

Elliot, it is said, spent minutes, hours and days on a single word.
"Should I, after tea and cakes and ices,
Have the strength to force the moment to its crisis?

... I'm no prophet - and here's no great matter."

Haha, yes, no great matter.  E = MC². Is the energy of an un-whispered whisper  =  the mass of an un-enervated option x light of hindsight²?

The iris of a distant galaxy turns to look at you, looming in infinitesimal space. The event horizon has no upcoming events. The mind's 'I' inverts and stares into itself. Introverted, obsessive, unnamed, undirected object.

See the eight limbed flailing cephalopod of sensuality spread out on the satin. Thrashing, grasping, finally scuttling out of view, into the shadows. Unresolved Janus hunkers again in his dark doorway, back to back. "Halt! Who goes there?"

"It is the sun of  midsummer's dawn, come to shine a light through your splayed archway and enumerate the names and days of your ways."

"Why should I mourn
The vanished power of the usual reign?"
Elliot again, an unwanted assignation in the middle of a mud bath.

And then another alliterative aside to an author of apposite autobiographical ardour for analogy.
"Show me the place where the suffering began
...
there were chains, so I loved you like a slave."
Cohen and Elliot. Kissing in the abyss. Senex and puer. Puer become senex. Senex sans sex. Puer profligate.
Nietzsche giggles.
"Your teeth are stuffed with underwear, suspenders torn asunder there, and buttocks in your paws." All the while Betjeman watches; writing rhymes on the skin of first year innocents, erasing errors with spaniels ears and the erstwhile tears of crushing humiliation from the then nine year old.
Yes. I remember now. The horror. Let's put that in the lower right corner. A tear-drop masked as a dacrocyte, symbol of the lasting anaemia of that moment.

So let us spiral inwards to the pseudo centre of the self. Let me let you in the antechamber of the other abyss, inside.

Yes, it is empty as a good abyss ought to be, no overwhelming questions please.

Be quiet. Close your vacant eyes for a moment and stare into your abyss.


...

...


Now open your virtual eyes and see, turn your head around and see the abyss smiling at you.

This is your perfect moment.

Identifying a phoenix

Phoenix 1.

(in classical mythology) a unique bird that lived for five or six centuries in the Arabian desert, after this time burning itself on a funeral pyre and rising from the ashes with renewed youth to live through another cycle.

(Ignore this definition as it is not what I mean at all)
Phoenix (mine). And idea or emotion that comes from the outside and changes you suddenly and intensely.

I had the pleasure recently of messaging with Ms A who brought a phoenix into my life many years ago. Tonight I had the pleasure of another phoenix.

These birds have been visting me more often of late, so I thought it would would be good to describe what I mean.

A phoenix is not a person; it is an idea, created by a person in your head.
It could be someone long dead or someone intimately alive that evokes a feeling so powerful as to make you believe you are in love or lust. A poem, a look, a conversation. A kiss. But confusing the person with the spark they have ignited in you is the cause of much strife. You mythologise the individual when it is the idea you should appreciate.

A phoenix is ephemeral
Sure, the phoenix may live for 600 years, but you will see it only briefly, in the moment of it's rebirth in your mind. I never knew what semiotics meant until last week. Now I know there is a word for what happens in my head when I see genius art or read a thrilling book. A word that has existed for 60+ years descended to earth in a fiery blaze of neurons. 45 years of my existence were transformed in a moment. A phoenix was born and ascended to the rather tatty heaven of my mind.

A phoenix means fire
Whether it is the hearth fire that brings warmth or the forest fire that destroys all before it, there will be fire. A phoenix does not come quietly. A phoenix does not wait at the door. Ready or not the phoenix descends from the heavens and blazes through your mind. Expect it.

The phoenix is fascinating
Fascinate: from Latin fascinat- ‘bewitched’, from the verb fascinare, from fascinum ‘spell, witchcraft’.
Yes! The greatest ventures and greatest heartbreaks come from fascination. The phoenix seduces you, burns you, changes you. If I were a reasonable man, perhaps I could analyse this for you. I cannot. I am enamoured of the seduction.

Whether it is cresting the mound of Venus or trudging the wastelands of Hades. Whether I am Persephone picking flowers or Demeter denuding the earth. Drag queen or dungeon master; earl or indentured man; sultan or slave; I am bewitched when the phoenix touches me with it's flames.

The phoenix does not obey the 10 commandments
(Yeah, whatevs. Nor do I.)
Or any other law for that matter. Phoenix don't care.

You can keep the phoenix out, but you cannot make it come in
An obstinate mind will block the phoenix every time. A receptive mind creates the space for the phoenix to land. Then you wait. That is all you can do.


16 years ago MS A put me in her car and drove me to a doctor. Without that act of kindness I would not be writing tonight. There were many other moments on the road that brought me here, but that was one of them.

A phoenix. A rebirth. A moment.